The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) has released the October 2024 figures. To better understand the state of the market and where it might be heading, I created some simple graphs. Personally, I find it much easier to scan a graph to see not just how the numbers have changed since last month but also to identify any longer-term trends. It’s far more helpful for me than trying to make sense of numbers scribbled on a piece of paper. Hopefully, these visuals will be useful to you too.
The market has remained relatively flat over the past couple of years, as reflected in the monthly sales numbers shown below. While there are some typical fluctuations such as January consistently being a slower month the overall trend shows little variation in sales volumes. For instance, the number of sales in October 24, are very similar to the ones we can see in Oct 22, that said, there does seem to be a modest improvement in sales for most of this year, potentially influenced by recent interest rate reductions and anticipated future reductions. I believe we would need 100 plus sales per month consistently to start to consider it a balanced market.
Number of sales in each price range for October 24, nothing too standout there, I guess the 11 under $400,000 is fairly high, as with most of this year the busiest part of the market is under $650,000 but still activity across the board,
The median sale price offers valuable insights but can be a little misleading. While it serves as a useful indicator of housing price trends, it is most effective when analyzed over a longer period such as the two-year span shown in the graph below. Simply comparing it to the previous month's data doesn’t provide a reliable measure of whether sale prices are truly rising or falling. For instance, as illustrated in the graph above, a significant number of properties sold for under $400,000, pulling down the median sale price for the month. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that a $600,000 property has lost value. Over the two year period, it’s evident that there is still ground to recover in the market.
The median or average time to sell in Rotorua, as illustrated below, has shown considerable variability over the past few years. This statistic is of great interest to us all. However, I believe it paints a clearer picture in a hotter market.
As I've mentioned in previous updates, the actual median in our current market is likely higher than the statistics suggest. This discrepancy arises because the data does not account for properties that lingered on the market for extended periods and were eventually withdrawn. Instead, it only records successful sales. In a hot market, nearly every property sells, making those figures more reliable indicators. But still, I like the 37 days of October 24, more than I did say the 74 days to sell in September last year :)
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